Thoughts About Coronavirus From A Completely Unqualified Millennial
The spread of coronavirus has the panicked masses wiping grocery stores clean of toilet paper, Clorox wipes, and hand sanitizer. Is all of this fear justified?
As a disclaimer, I’m not a scientist and everything in this post is based on a multitude of speculative sources, but let’s dive in a bit, shall we?
Coronavirus (which I’ll refer to as COVID-19 from here on out) has officially been labeled a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as a national emergency in the United States.
While it may sound scary, slapping the “pandemic” label on a disease doesn’t make it more or less deadly than anything else. On average, Ebola has a 50% fatality rate but never got to pandemic status, for example. COVID-19, on the other hand (as of March 9th), has killed about 3.4% of those who have tested positive for it.
3.4% is a relatively high percentage for a flu-like sickness, but here’s the catch: due to the shortage of COVID-19 test kits and hospital beds, those who do test positive tend to be either elderly, immunocompromised, or were otherwise already sick enough to even be admitted to the hospital in the first place.
Many others (perhaps even me!) are likely walking around carrying the virus right now, either unaware that they are indeed carriers, or experiencing symptoms so mild that they’d never even consider getting tested for it.
So the takeaway point here is: if you’re a young and relatively healthy person, you’ll probably make it out okay. That being said, take all the necessary precautions as to not spread it to others who may not be so fortunate.
(And just so we’re clear, I have been self-quarantining for the most part for a few days now, just in case.)
Back to the previous topic: a pandemic is classified as a disease that humans do not yet have immunity to that spreads internationally. But ultimately it isn’t based on any exact threshold (including number of deaths or infections) and the WHO gets the final say.
Unlike the AIDS crisis of the ‘80s that disproportionately affected the LGBTQ+ community, the upper-middle class simply can’t ignore the threat of COVID-19 anymore. It has the potential to infect everyone nondiscriminatorily and needs to be dealt with or else the economy will crumble.
We’re already seeing the effects of that.
In Seattle for example, big tech companies’ decision to have employees work remotely has caused restaurant patronage to plummet, leading to either lay-offs or total closures. Restaurateur Tom Douglas is closing 12 out of 13 of his Seattle restaurants.
Other industries have also taken a hit, including travel and hospitality.
But if one thing’s for certain, the healthcare profession likely isn’t in any danger of going under (and may actually have the opposite problem of not having enough workers).
Many employees of affected industries are being left without any source of income and risk being evicted from their homes. Fortunately, Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan signed an emergency order temporarily banning landlords from evicting tenants for their to inability to pay rent. (Now if only that order would be extended long-term, but I digress.)
Although not enforced by the city or state, a coalition of New York City landlords has also promised not to evict financially burdened tenants for three months.
As for me, a person presently in the under-30 demographic, this is certainly the most alarming widespread disaster I’ve experienced so far in my relatively short life (apart from the Nisqually Earthquake of 2001. I was 10 years old), and it’s the first time I’ve genuinely felt some amount of concern for my own safety and for the health of others around me.
Possibly the strangest part of this whole thing is the fact that practically every single person on planet earth is thinking about COVID-19 right now, because there's really nowhere to run or hide from it.
It is more contagious than the typical season flu, where an already-infected person infects an average of 1.3 to 1.5 people. Someone carrying COVID-19 will infect 3.28 people on average.
Some experts estimate that between 20% and 70% will become infected worldwide, which is probably a testament to how little we really know about the virus at this point. It is loosely estimated that nearly 30% of everyone in the US will become infected in the next three to seven months, and out of those people, 50% will require hospitalization. (Again, this number is based on speculation and certainly may change.)
If those numbers turn out to be accurate, then it is not unlikely that either I or some of the people around me will contract COVID-19 at some point and potentially need medical assistance.
Now let’s move past the fatalistic portion of this post. The (realistic) good news:
The fatality rate is very low at present for those who aren't elderly or dealing with underlying health conditions (see above), and the infection rate pales in comparison with measles, one of the most infectious diseases;
It’s not likely a person can contract COVID-19 more than once (although this is still being monitored);
Scientists are potentially only a month or so away from having a vaccine ready for human trials according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. This is months before they initially believed they could have a trial vaccine ready;
It’s important to note that negative headlines often get more clicks than positive ones (I know this from personal experience working in media);
Finally, and perhaps above all else humanity has, indeed, survived devastating pandemics many, many times. If our ancestors could survive the Black Death in the 14th century, we can sure as hell survive this in 2020 using modern medicine.
And now for some closing thoughts:
In order to fight this in the most effective way possible, we need universal healthcare in the United States. Hopefully I don’t need to explain why.
Now go give your local healthcare professional a high five for the work they’re doing. (actually please do not do that, a well-meaning Facebook message will do just fine.) And please, for the love of God, wash your goddamn hands.
Michelle
March 16, 2020
